Nassim Nicholas Taleb Poradie kníh (chronologicky)

The monograph investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible.Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress". Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=?, and the real world is in between, under of the "laws of the medium numbers" --which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence.A few examples:+ The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naive empiricism", but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods.+ The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical.+ Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics.+ Dimension reduction (principal components) fails.+ Inequality estimators (GINI or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results.+ Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions+ Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions.This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

Błyskotliwa książka, w której autor bestsellera Czarny Łabędź zastanawia się nad rolą przypadku w naszym życiu, zmienia sposób myślenia o biznesie i świecie. Na podstawie swojego doświadczenia na rynku finansowym oraz setek przeczytanych książek, Taleb snuje fascynującą opowieść o funkcjonowaniu w świecie, gdzie kluczową rolę odgrywa losowość. Z typowym dla siebie zgryźliwym humorem porusza główne problemy intelektualne związane z niedocenianiem wpływu przypadku na nasze życie. Wykorzystując zdarzenia z życia postaci prawdziwych i mitycznych, takich jak Yogi Berra, Karl Popper, Solon, George Soros czy Odyseusz, opisuje fenomen przypadkowości w życiu prywatnym i zawodowym, dochodząc do szokujących wniosków. Książka uznawana jest za jedną z najmądrzejszych wszech czasów według magazynu „Fortune”. Profesor Marco Avellaneda z New York University podkreśla jej inteligencję i odkrywczość, a profesor Donald Geman z John Hopkins University zwraca uwagę na solidną podbudowę matematyczną. Taleb, poprzez analityczny i racjonalny wywód, nawiązuje do najwybitniejszych popularyzatorów nauki, takich jak Richard Dawkins i Stephen Jay Gould.

Zbiór przezabawnych i niezwykle trafnych aforyzmów autora bestsellera Czarny łabędź, w którym autor w zaskakujący sposób demaskuje nasze społeczne iluzje. Tytuł książki wywodzi się z mitologii greckiej – okrutny zbój Prokrust „udoskonalał” swoich gości na specjalnym posłaniu, rozciągając ich lub przycinając im kończyny. Ta metafora znakomicie oddaje stosunek Nassima Taleba do aroganckich skutków ubocznych współczesnej cywilizacji – podporządkowywania ludzi technologii, obarczania rzeczywistości winą za niedopasowywanie się do modeli ekonomicznych, wynajdywania przez koncerny farmaceutyczne chorób w celu sprzedaży leków, sprowadzania inteligencji do czegoś, co można przetestować prostym formularzem, i wpajania społeczeństwom, że stałe zatrudnienie nie jest formą niewolnictwa. Posługując się wyjątkowym połączeniem ciętego dowcipu i przekonującej mądrości, Taleb rozwiewa, jedną po drugiej, nasze iluzje, kontrastując klasyczne wartości, takie jak odwaga, elegancja i erudycja, z największymi dolegliwościami współczesności, jak twardogłowie, kołtuneria i pretensjonalność. „Krystaliczne samorodki myśli Taleba przypominają autonomiczne, ezoteryczne wiersze”. „Financial Times”

Nassim Nicholas Taleb argumentiert, dass Menschen in Machtpositionen oft keine Verantwortung für ihre Entscheidungen tragen, da sie kein „Skin in the Game“ haben. Er erläutert, wie dieses Konzept des Risikomanagements auf alle Lebensbereiche anwendbar ist und fordert dazu auf, unser Verständnis von Risiko und Verantwortung zu überdenken.

Nassim Taleb's five landmark bestselling books have changed the way millions see the world and think about uncertainty, chance, volatility, and risk. They can be read individually but are also written to complement each other and actually comprise a single work: The Incerto. This boxed set is newly designed and offers readers one of the most significant intellectual projects of our time.

The perfect gift to get you through the work Christmas party, family board game blow ups and dinner with the in-laws. 'A classic' - Simon Kuper, Financial Times 'This is brilliant' - James O'Brien, author of How to be Right The five laws that confirm our worst fears: stupid people can and do rule the world. Since time immemorial, a powerful dark force has hindered the growth of human welfare and happiness. It is more powerful than the Mafia or the military. It has global catastrophic effects and can be found anywhere from the world's most powerful boardrooms to your local pub. This is the immensely powerful force of human stupidity. Seeing the shambolic state of human affairs, and sensing the dark force at work behind it, Carlo M. Cipolla, the late, noted professor of economic history at the University of California, Berkeley, created a vitally important economic model that would allow us to detect, know and neutralise this threat: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity. If you've ever found yourself despairing at the ubiquity of stupidity among even the most 'intellectual' of people, then this hilarious, timely and slightly alarming little book is for you. Arm yourself in the face of baffling political realities, unreasonable colleagues or the unbridled misery of Christmas day with the in-laws with the first and only economic model for stupidity.

Die "Incerto-Reihe" von Nassim Nicholas Taleb, die die Werke "Der Schwarze Schwan", "Narren des Zufalls", "Antifragilität" und das "Kleine Handbuch für den Umgang mit Unwissen" umfasst, untersucht die Rolle von Glück, Unsicherheit und Risiko in einer komplexen Welt. Daniel Kahneman beschreibt Talebs Einfluss auf seine Weltsicht.

Traces the author's experiences as a mathematics wizard, author, inventor, hedge-fund manager, and card-counter who revealed casino-beating strategies, invented the first wearable computer, and launched a Wall Street revolution

Why should we never listen to people who explain rather than do? Why do companies go bust? How is it that we have more slaves today than in Roman times? Why does imposing democracy on other countries never work? The answer- too many people running the world don't have skin in the game. In this provocative book, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows that skin in the game applies to all aspects of our lives. It's about having something to lose and taking a risk. Citizens, lab experimenters, artisans, political activists and hedge fund traders all have skin in the game. Policy wonks, corporate executives, theoreticians, bankers and most journalists don't.

New York Times bestselling author Nassim Taleb's landmark Incerto series - Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, The Bed of Procrustes - gathered together for the first time, in a beautifully designed box set.

Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. In this title, the author shows that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. Taleb tells us how to live in a world that is unpredictable and chaotic, and how to thrive during moments of disaster.

Nassim Taleb je bez pochyby jedným z najväčších mysliteľov 21. storočia. Jeho prvý bestseller „Čierna labuť“ ukázal, ako silný vplyv môžu mať na naše životy neočakávané udalosti. Vo svojom druhom bestselleri „Antifragile“ zachádza ešte o mnoho ďalej, keď predstavuje podstatu nestálosti sveta. Na mnohých príkladoch z reálneho života ukazuje, ako budujeme svet, ktorý sa stáva stále krehkejší a náchylnejší k turbulenciám. Pritom by sme sa mali snažiť o pravý opak, poučiť sa z prírody a byť antikrehký – profitovať z nepoznaného a neistého. Profitovať z toho, aký svet v skutočnosti je.

A gripping tale of how even experts misread the role of chance - from the stock market to doctors' surgeries - "Dance With Chance" argues that we all fall foul of the 'The Illusion of Control', meaning that we underestimate the role of luck in our lives. The authors argue that by understanding how uncertainty operates, we can make palpable improvements to our health, wealth, happiness and careers.

By the author of the modern classic The Black Swan, this collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb's view of modern civilization's hubristic side effects--modifying humans to satisfy technology, blaming reality for not fitting economic models, inventing diseases to sell drugs, defining intelligence as what can be tested in a classroom, and convincing people that employment is not slavery

From the critically acclaimed author of Fooled by Randomness, a book about the impact of improbable events on every aspect of life.

Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? This book aims to change the way you think about business and the world. It also seeks to shatter the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness.

Dynamic Hedging is an essential guide to managing derivatives risk, offering a practical approach for portfolios with nonlinear securities. It presents insights from the perspective of option market makers and arbitrage operators. Authored by an experienced trader with theoretical expertise, it adapts option theory to real-world scenarios, addressing the limitations of traditional mathematical models in capturing market exposure. Nassim Taleb explores both on-model and off-model derivatives risks, discussing critical concepts in accessible language. Key topics include the generalized option, which covers all convex payoff instruments, and trading techniques for exotic options like binary, barrier, multi-asset, and Asian options, while considering the complexities of actual distributions. The book examines market dynamics from a practitioner's viewpoint, addressing liquidity issues, portfolio insurance, volatility surfaces, and the shortcomings of value at risk methods. It introduces new risk detection tools, including higher moment analysis and nonparametric techniques, while emphasizing the path dependence of dynamically hedged options. Filled with practical tools, market anecdotes, and concise risk management rules, it also presents fundamental derivatives mathematics in intuitive terms, making it a valuable resource for practitioners.