Ian Goldin Knihy

Ľudstvo je na vrchole. A zároveň sme veľmi zraniteľní. Svet sa nachádza na sklonku novej renesancie a stojíme pred otázkou, či sa nám podarí vyťažiť z nej to najlepšie a vyhnúť sa chaosu a rozvratu. Na celom svete sa zlepšuje zdravie a vzdelanie, rastie bohatstvo. Veda prosperuje ako nikdy predtým. Ale tie isté sily, ktoré nám môžu priniesť mnoho výhod, sú zdrojom ohrozenia. V tejto situácii sme už raz boli. Prvá renesancia a osobnosti ako Kolumbus, Kopernik či Gutenberg prekreslili mapy nášho sveta, dali voľnosť informáciám a posunuli západnú civilizáciu zo stredoveku do počiatkov modernej éry. Zaplatili sme ale veľkú daň: spoločenské a náboženské rozkoly, politický extrémizmus, ekonomické šoky, pandémie a iné nepredvídateľné dôsledky objavov a rýchlych zmien. Aj dnes, v našej druhej renesancii, keď čelíme terorizmu, rozpadu politických únií, utečeneckej kríze a nerozvážnym svetovým lídrom, môžeme prosperovať – ak sa dokážeme poučiť z minulosti. Epocha objavov prináša prehľad najväčších súčasných úspechov ľudstva, ale aj hroziacich rizík. Je v našich rukách, ktorý scenár sa naplní.

„Počet obyvatel zatěžuje naši planetu a ta je jen stěží schopna nás uživit...“ Tento výrok, přisuzovaný Tertullianovi z 2. století, varoval před kolapsem populace, tehdy čítající přibližně 190 milionů lidí. Dnes, po 40 letech, jsme dosáhli 7 miliard, avšak tempo růstu se zpomaluje. Počet obyvatel není jediným faktorem, který určuje, zda je Země přeplněná. Žijeme v „globální vesnici“, kde čelíme problémům jako změny klimatu, nedostatek vody a potravin, využívání neobnovitelných zdrojů a migrace. Jaké etické důsledky má růst populace? Je spotřeba bohatých udržitelná? Může být tato úroveň rozšířena na všechny? Jaký je aktuální stav Země a jak se změní s rostoucí populací a příjmy? Co mohou jednotlivci, firmy a vlády udělat pro zmírnění negativních dopadů a využití pozitivních aspektů populačního růstu? Na tyto otázky odpovídají akademici z různých oborů na Oxford Martin School, kteří se zabývají současností i budoucností naší planety.

How to better manage systemic risks—from cyber attacks and pandemics to financial crises and climate change—in a globalized world The Butterfly Defect addresses the widening gap between the new systemic risks generated by globalization and their effective management. It shows how the dynamics of turbo-charged globalization has the potential and power to destabilize our societies. Drawing on the latest insights from a wide variety of disciplines, Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan provide practical guidance for how governments, businesses, and individuals can better manage globalization and risk. Goldin and Mariathasan demonstrate that systemic risk issues are now endemic everywhere—in supply chains, pandemics, infrastructure, ecology and climate change, economics, and politics. Unless we address these concerns, they will lead to greater protectionism, xenophobia, nationalism, and, inevitably, deglobalization, rising inequality, conflict, and slower growth. The Butterfly Defect shows that mitigating uncertainty and risk in an interconnected world is an essential task for our future.

In this book Ian Goldin shows how the understanding of how nations escape poverty and achieve economic and social progress has changed as the pendulum has swung from arguments for state-led development to a preoccupation with market forces.

The book defines the big historical trends, identifies the main globalization processes - trade, finance, aid, migration, and ideas - and examines how each can contribute to economic development.

The UN, World Bank, and the IMF were all created in the radically different world of the 1940s. It is becoming increasingly apparent that our global structures are struggling to cope with the new globalized, interconnected challenges of the twenty-first century. Ian Goldin looks to the future to consider radical new approaches to our world order.

A guide to debate and action. It charts the past and present of international migration and makes practical recommendations that allow everyone to benefit from its unstoppable future growth. It also allows individuals to escape destitution, human rights abuses, and repressive regimes.

Throughout history, migrants have driven human progress, sparking innovation, spreading ideas, alleviating poverty, and establishing a global economy. As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, the number of people motivated to migrate will rise. This book examines the significant benefits of this trend for both countries and migrants. It challenges the notion that increased migration is undesirable, advocating for governance approaches that embrace international mobility. The authors delve into the historical significance of human migration, tracing its impact from the first migrations out of Africa to the present day, highlighting how the exchange of ideas and technologies has enriched communities and fueled economies. They illustrate how migrants connect markets, fill labor shortages, and enhance social diversity, while also providing individuals an escape from poverty, human rights violations, and oppressive regimes. Despite these advantages, current migration policies are often rooted in misconceptions and fears about the long-term effects of migration. The authors argue that future policies will crucially shape societies' ability to harness migration's benefits while managing its risks. This book serves as a guide for robust debate and action, outlining the history and current state of international migration while offering practical recommendations to ensure that everyone can benefit from its inevitable growth.

Review from previous edition An authoritative and highly readable account of evolution of economic and social development that goes beyond a focus on economic growth to a broader understanding of well-being. David Lorimer, Network Reviews

An optimistic vision of the future after Covid-19 by a leading professor of globalisation at the University of Oxford.