David J. Hand Knihy

V éře velkých dat je snadné podlehnout dojmu, že máme všechny informace, které k správnému rozhodování potřebujeme. Ve skutečnosti však nejsou data, která máme, nikdy úplná. Stejně jako většina vesmíru sestává z temné hmoty, neviditelné a přesto přítomné, je vesmír informací plný temných dat, která k vlastní škodě přehlížíme. Kniha zkoumá množství způsobů, kterými nás mohou chybějící data zaslepit vůči skutečnosti a vést nás k závěrům a skutkům, jež jsou pomýlené, nebezpečné, ba dokonce katastrofální. Učí nás nejen jak se mít na pozoru před problémy, které představuje to, co nevíme, ale také jak využít temných dat k vlastní výhodě tím, že budeme lépe chápat to, o čem se rozhodujeme. Dnes se na základě dat rozhodujeme všichni. David Hand nám ukazuje, jak se pokud možno nerozhodovat špatně.

Glückspilze, die mehrfach im Lotto gewinnen, Unglücksraben, die wiederholt der Blitz trifft, extreme Krisen an den Finanzmärkten aus vermeintlich heiterem Himmel: Außerordentlich unwahrscheinliche Dinge - Wunder im positiven, Katastrophen im negativen Sinne - geschehen immer wieder. Die Frage ist nur: Warum? Und: Wie? Lieben Sie Geschichten über bestürzende Zufälle und außerordentlich seltene Ereignisse? Dann sollten Sie genauso zu diesem Buch greifen, wie wenn Sie endlich eine seriöse Methode kennenlernen möchten, Ihre Chance auf einen Lottogewinn zu erhöhen. So anschaulich wie vergnüglich weiht David Hand uns in die Macht des Unwahrscheinlichen und seine physikalischen, statistischen und psychologischen Gesetze ein. Kommen diese zusammen, ist die Wirkung verblüffend. Dann können wir uns darauf gefasst machen, dass das Unvorstellbare eintritt. Jeden Tag.

The growth of large electronic databases has spurred interest in methods for uncovering structures within them, commonly referred to as data mining. A key aspect of this field focuses on identifying and detecting anomalous, interesting, or valuable records, known as patterns. Examples include detecting fraud in credit-card transactions, identifying coincident purchases in supermarkets, analyzing significant nucleotide sequences in genetics, and recognizing characteristic traces in EEG records. While tools for pattern detection have been developed within the data mining community, they have also emerged in various other research fields, often without recognizing the shared underlying problems. Each discipline has its own extensive and rapidly growing literature, making it challenging to stay updated across multiple areas, especially when they use unfamiliar technical language. Consequently, valuable opportunities may be missed as discoveries made in one field do not transfer to others. This can lead to the rediscovery of breakthroughs or prolonged periods before solutions are found, resulting in wasted effort and lost opportunities.

A practical guide to making good decisions in a world of missing data. In the era of big data, it is easy to imagine that we have all the information we need to make good decisions. But in fact the data we have are never complete, and may be only the tip of the iceberg. Just as much of the universe is composed of dark matter, invisible to us but nonetheless present, the universe of information is full of dark data that we overlook at our peril. In Dark Data, data expert David Hand takes us on a fascinating and enlightening journey into the world of the data we don't see. Dark Data explores the many ways in which we can be blind to missing data and how that can lead us to conclusions and actions that are mistaken, dangerous, or even disastrous. Examining a wealth of real-life examples, from the Challenger shuttle explosion to complex financial frauds, Hand gives us a practical taxonomy of the types of dark data that exist and the situations in which they can arise, so that we can learn to recognise and control for them. In doing so, he teaches us not only to be alert to the problems presented by the things we don't know, but also shows how dark data can be used to our advantage, leading to greater understanding and better decisions. Today, we all make decisions using data. Dark Data shows us all how to reduce the risk of making bad ones

"An eye-opening and engrossing look at rare moments, why they occur, and how they shape our world. In this book, the renowned statistician David J. Hand unveils his groundbreaking argument that extraordinarily rare events are in fact commonplace. Weaving together fascinating new ways to think about chance, Hand highlights his "law of near enough, " the "look elsewhere effect, " and more, doing for probability what Newton's laws of motion did for mechanics. Through humorous and engaging tales of two-time lottery winners, gambling gone wrong, and bizarre coincidences that we can't quite fathom, Hand argues that extremely unlikely events must happen, and no mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why. Hand's investigation, grounded in statistics and brought to life with fascinating anecdotes, finally explains "unexplainable" events such as unexpectedly bumping into a friend in a foreign country and coming across an unfamiliar word twice in one day. Along the way, we learn what the Bible and Shakespeare have in common, just how to win the lottery, why financial crashes are par for the course, and why lightning does strike the same place (and the same person) more than once. As Hand makes clear, we can rest assured that we'll experience a "miracle" roughly once per month. An irresistible adventure into the laws behind chance moments, the book transforms how we think about business decisions, everyday encounters, serendipity, and luck"-- Provided by publisher

This Very Short Introduction explores the concept of measurement, its mathematical underpinnings, and its wide range of application from the sciences and social sciences to economics and commerce

Focusing on the intersection of psychiatry and artificial intelligence, this book equips psychiatrists with essential knowledge of AI methods and concepts. It aims to enhance understanding of how AI can be integrated into psychiatric practices, facilitating improved patient care and treatment approaches.

This book is about the function and use of official statistics. It welcomes the aspiration for official statistics to be an indispensable element in the information system of a democratic society, serving the government, the economy and the public with data about the economic, demographic, social and environmental situation. The book identifies the political role of official statisticians, who decided what gets measured as well as how it is measured. While thousands of official statistics are published every year, and some are quoted by politicians, used by policy-makers or reported in the media, the authors observe that, in the main, official statistics do not feature much in everyday lives of people and businesses. The book concludes with suggestions for more that should be done, especially in the context of improving wellbeing and helping meet the worldwide set of sustainable development goals set for 2030.