A History of British Actuarial Thought

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In this groundbreaking work, Turnbull explores the evolution of actuarial ideas from the mid-18th century with the establishment of Equitable Life to the early 21st century. The book delves into the historical development of British actuarial thought across three primary areas: life assurance, pensions, and general insurance. It examines how innovative actuarial approaches emerged within these sectors, influenced by shared external factors like economic shocks, academic advancements, and technological progress. Key topics include the creation of management strategies for with-profit business, advancements in mortality modeling, shifts in investment strategies for life and pensions, and evolving views on funding Defined Benefit pensions. The text also addresses the application of risk theory in general insurance reserving, the adoption of risk-based reserving, and the Guaranteed Annuity Option crisis at the century's end. Furthermore, it provides an overview of significant external contributions to actuarial thought, particularly in probability and statistics since the 1650s and developments in financial economics during the late 20th century. This book identifies how historical actuarial thought anticipated modern finance concepts and the challenges faced in aligning them with traditional methods. It serves as a vital resource for actuaries, trainees, and students, as well as professionals in related financial fields.